Can we afford a Policy of Drift?

First posted as a post on Bharat Rakshak forum

Can we afford a policy of drift?
Gentle readers, the new GOI has been formed and the first indications for the more discerning are that couple of fundamental points that I have articulated in this forum in the past are getting reinforced.

1. This time round, with the a stronger mandate for the Congress, it is clear that economic growth will get overriding priority. The PM Manmohan Singh's vision of India is one based on the "Japan model" -to ensure that India emerges as an economic powerhouse primarily with a stake in international coalation of democratic powers.

2. There will be a continuation of policy of minimum engagement with neighbouring states and an increasing linkages with ASEAN, Mid East and G20 groups. Security is not seen as a pre-requisite for economic growth, but just a necessity to be looked at insofar it comes in the way of economic growth. "Hire some security guards to guard the bank and be done with it", seems to be the approach.

How have the above points been reinforced? The Presidential address to the Indian Parliament, the PM's reply to that address, all indicate the primacy of economic growth. The complete silence on internal security front, the complete silence on re-engagement in Sri Lanka to secure Tamil interests and by extension Indian interests there, the clear announcement in the parliament that China is not an adversary despite clear acts by China against core Indian interests, the indication of resumption of talks with Pakistan despite nothing being done by Pakistan post Mumbai killings are all evidence to the above assertions.

With this in mind, let us examine, gentle readers, the first signs of post election approach to the events in Pakistan. The GOI has not indicated in any way that there will be no let up on the pressure on the pakistani government. On the contrary, there seems to be a nudge from the Obama administration to resume talks at least in private and India seems to be reluctant to assert itself. Why is this? Has the US promised anything to India that will ensure that Pakistan will desist from lauching further terror attacks? The last few months, there has been no terror attacks of significance. The apparatus is there. But it is silent. In return, has India been promised that Pakistan will be broken up as per US plans and GOI aid that process by not providing an obvious rallying point to fend off the impending implosion of the Pakistani state?

For there seems to be a policy of general drift. One of trying to cope with the situation around us and minimise impact as long as the cherished goal of becoming a "Japan like" state is achieved. Rather than shaping the events around us to ensure that Indian interests, and independence are maintained, the PM seems to think that there is a possibility of reaching a peaceful settlement with Pakistan. The PM seems to think that Pakistani establishment will accept the reality of India as an economic power and a united country. The PM seems to think that the guarantors of Pakistan - the US, Saudi and PRC all have accepted India as a major power and they would allow, counsel and encourage Pakistan to deliver peace.

As a lay observer, I see no evidence of any of that happening. The Pakistani establishment sees no incentive in peace with India. What do they get? What will the major powers get? As of now, nothing. I am sure, that with the all the wherewithal of the state at his disposal, the PM should know better.

Every thinking Indian will not find comfort if the GOI returns to talks with Pakistan. It would be a victory of Pakistani policy if that happens. A great blunder if we resume talks without any tangible results are achieved as retribution. Nothing has happened. The Pakistani elite, whilst begging, have now begun to talk about the need for India to resume talks and have started demanding Kashmir. They have been emboldened and encouraged to do this by the West.

The US and Indian interests are not converging on what needs to be done in Pakistan. The US wants India to pay the price for its citizens to remain protected from jehadis of pakistan. The GOI does not seem to be in any hurry now to ensure that Pakistan is made accountable. There is no threat of general elections now for the GOI and even if it was there, security is not an issue for our countrymen. Bitter as it may sound, our people have not responded to the threat that we face from terror and Pakistan and have not demanded that the government act and stop this.

There is no mention of improving security, no gameplan against Maoists, no gameplan for Nepal or Myanmar. Nothing to show for any clarity of thought. We are drifting along and have an inexperienced foreign minister who is more adept in handling economic issues than foreign policy issues. There is no sense of urgency. No revamp of laws, police or judicial services. No accountability at all. If the government invests even 20% of the time and resources that it spends on NREGA programmes, inclusive growth, subsidies and freebies, our security situation would have improved. There is no vision beyond GDP growth.

India runs the risk of ignoring its neighbours at its own peril. Pakistan will pose an existential threat and a humanatarian crisis for us in the next 5 years. Millions are going to pour across the border if Pakistan implodes in to bloody civil war. The US will be forced to join in and they may want India sucked into it. The same is the case with Nepal which is now more and more getting into the ambit of China. There is no improvement in the actions of Bangladesh despite Hasina getting back into power. There is no rehabilitation initiative, post the LTTE rout in Sri Lanka, like what was done in Afghanistan. Nothing has been done to thwart the moves of China.

The need of the hour is to force Pakistan to dismantle its terror machine and hand over its leadership for trial. GOI should not shirk its duty towards its people on this and let the interests of the US dictate how India responds. There should no be relief extended to Pakistan. Military pressure must be built up and so should diplomatic pressure on closing down terror. It should not be linked to resumption of talks. It should be demanded as the minimum that would be required for India to even consider talking to pakistan - be it track 1 or track N level.

Be that as it may, we should also recognise, gentle readers, that the majority of Indians do not think like this. They think like what GOI is currently thinking, we should worry about stock markets, travel advisories, economic growth, minority rights, and do a deal with Pakistan so that we can get on with the agenda of money making. If we become an economic powerhouse, everything will be allright.

We have a government today that actually reflects the will of the people. We deserve what we are going to get, the good, bad and the ugly. For all practical purposes, it looks like that the GOI will start talking to pakistan. The terror attacks will continue, only larger in scale this time. We will pay for it in blood, but the GDP will be 8%. After all that is the only thing that is important isn't it?

Just a ramble for what it is worth. If you get the drift...