Decoding Signals from Noise - The Need to think Differently!

Decoding Signals from the Noise - The Need to think a bit differently!

First appeared as a post in Bharat Rakshak forum Bharat Rakshak Forums

Gentle readers of the forum. I do believe that the famed "ahead of the curve" BRF is slowing down. Hence thought it is time for another ramble from yours truly can gently point out to certain facts and trends amidst the noise. A better signal to noise ratio, should ensure that our collective thinking is more focussed.

So in that spirit, it would be pertinent to point out a few interesting trends of the last few months since a new GoI dispensation took over

1. A far more integrated approach to National Security across all its dimensions i.e. Geo-political, Economic, Military, Socio-Cultural and Science & technology has been adopted. Evidence of the same is there to see if only we pick up the signals. The Inner Mandala (immediate neighborhood) being engaged, Act East, Engagement with Paki sponsor states in a new manner, revving up economic engine, Make in India, Cleansing of institutions, drawing up a plan for rapid military industrial complex building, intel up gradation, border areas being focused for development etc

2. A clear demonstration of National interest being reinforced be it with WTO negotiations or taking an offensive defence action against pakistani entity in the latest standoff, or standing our ground against Chinese bala pariksha during their President's visit

3. The clear acceptance that things have change in India by the western power elite, in terms of the long queues to get Modi to their country, from the USG's attempt to mend fences, to Australian and British efforts to reset their relationship with Modi. Not to mention, the almost daily wailing across Pakistani channels about how India is way ahead and how they are getting to be irrelevant.

4. The willingness on the part of GoI to engage the diaspora and integrate the vast presence and influence that they represent into articulation of Indian power projection. The positive response that this has evoked and very visible changes in processes and government attitude to them shows another intent. That India is ready to take on the responsibility towards them and work towards being a global player.

5. The very clear signals that the PM has made to the rest of South Asian region - offering them a choice and chance. They have all been clearly told to make a stand in terms of building a region that is open, sensitive to each others interests and becoming more integrated. That is the choice that they have been asked to make. In terms of chance, by electing to be aligned with the overarching Indian vision of an integrated region, the neighbors will be allowed to partake in the economic resurgence and growth of India. They will be able to get Indian capital, expertise, access Indian infrastructure.

These five mega trends are pretty obvious. What does it therefore portend to the artificial entity called Pakistan and its international benefactors?

1. First and foremost, India will act without recourse to any other consideration to any other power, to protect its national interest. Any Pakistani misadventure will be dealt with a composite response that will inflict disproportionate pain. It has already been demonstrated. Their backers in terms of the US and its allies, the Saudis and the Chinese are now very aware that India will not be acting in a purely defensive defense manner any more.

2. The survival of the artificial entity called Pakistan will be left to themselves. India will not do anything in terms of throwing a life line to this entity or a set of the power elite that controls that entity to ensure its survival. Indeed, should the entity or the power elite there continue to act against Indian security or export terror, India will retaliate and ensure everything possible is done to hasten the implosion.

3. Indian position with regard to Pakistan will not be based on any notions of what it will mean to Indian Muslims or potential fault lines that it might  breach internally in India. There is a clear departure of sub-conscious linking of Indian Muslims to the problem that the artificial entity called Pakistan poses to us. No longer will the GOI be shackled by those imaginary chains.

The above messages are being increasingly understood by the Pakistanis as well as their benefactors, as they are not mere posturing but what they see as action on the ground by India. It is another matter that the biggest benefactor of the artificial entity called Pakistan, the USA, the sole super power is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain or control events in the rentier state. It is a reflection of the slow erosion in their capacity to use their still unsurpassed power and capabilities at the altar of geo-political constraints. What is not noticed or given any recognition and acknowledgement is the new found clarity of purpose and unity in action on the part of GOI. Even less understood is the full geo-strategic impact of the General Elections and what it has meant in terms of expression of National Will by the people of India. This has been a true "Black Swan" moment that should be understood.

If these basic signals or understood, we can understand that the coming decade will be one that will change the region in many ways as yet unimagined.

So gentle rakshaks, I do hope that this little ramble will set us all thinking a bit differently and act a bit differently. For after all, as I keep saying, the toughest shackles to break are the ones in our minds.

Just a ramble as usual take it for what it is worth!

Shankh Naad - The Call of our Times!

The Shankh Naad - The Call of our Times

Statecraft is best pursued without attaching emotions. Modi could have clearly delayed going to the US? Yes. Would it send a message to the US? Of Course Yes! But what is important is not the public messages that press and BRF members discuss when it comes to the interests of the state.

The insult to India by way of La Affair Khobragade and Visa Refusal is there. It is not going to go away. As the leader of the country, Modi had a choice. He could have clearly indicated that he remembers the insult to India and to him personally by not going to the US or agreeing to meet the POTUS by not accepting the invitation immediately and wait for the completion of Obama Presidency. Bear in mind, he has very clearly stated that acts against individuals will not decide on relations between sovereign states. He obviously does not see the insult to bear on relations indefinitely. 

He clearly wants to establish a road map and trajectory for India that will put firmly on a path of relative security and strength that will guarantee and underpin a growth model that will be comprehensive. No more compartmentalized vision of a India as an economic power, like the "Japan Model", that I used to refer. That was a vision pursued by the likes of Manmohan Singh. That era has ended.

The first steps of Modi in the realm of strategic affairs and foreign policy is clearly indicating to a vision of India that will take its place as a comprehensive global power. I have always maintained that National Security is essentially multi-dimensional. I have written and presented in the past this aspect of National Security as a composite, dynamic and evolving set of goals. In its essence, National Security is about protecting and promoting National Interests, which by themselves are inherently dynamic and evolving. How are these National Interests defined and envisioned? It has to be a natural extension of National Strengths across five dimensions, Military, Geo Political, Socio-Cultural, Economic and Science & Technology. In each of these dimensions we will have National Aspirations and this has to be viewed in the context of National Strengths.

It is this integrated view that will help envision a set of National Goals and National Interest and to pursue them would be the basis of our National Security agenda. Foreign diplomacy and geo-political realities must dictate a set of options. Capabilities in these dimensions will not ensure achieving of National Interests or Goals. An integrated well crafted pursuit of National Interests that combines all the five dimensions alone will help achieve our agenda. It is also important that the National Interests are well defined and clear.

Given the above, this watershed election has given an opportunity to the GoI to recalibrate the National Vision of what India wants. Unfortunately, in our democracy, foreign policy is not an election issue. The reason for this is very clear. The general population trusts the GoI of whatever dispensation to pursue a policy of continuity in our foreign policy. In this two principal axioms were considered inviolable by any government.

(i) Strategic decisions and options of India will be decided only by India and by Indians. There can be no dilution of this principle for any of the strategic decisions to powers outside India - be it super powers or any multi-lateral arrangement. 

(ii) Indian independence to exercise its strategic decisions and options will never be compromised. No inducements, threat of force or coercion will be accepted to infringe on this right and India will pay any price to defend this independence. 

Till the advent of Manmohan Singh government, all previous governments have never compromised on these fundamentals, no matter what the odds. 

I believe that the dilution on the above principles will be stopped and their sanctity will be restored. This is the continuity part of our National Security strategy and the foreign policy that we adopt will be within the boundaries of these principles. There is no change in this from Modi government. It will only be a reassertion of these inviolable postulates. 

The change will be in the tone, tenor and grammar of how we conduct ourselves. That is in large part dictated by the Vision and Goals we will have. This government has indicated very clearly that they are not thinking of a five year mandate but are laying out a plan and vision for India for a much longer time frame. The change will be seen in the comprehensive vision of India that straddles all the five dimensions mentioned above. 

While that clarity in thought is essential in forging a path ahead, it is also a demand of statecraft that one must have a clarity in the path to be taken to reach or realize the Vision. It has to be a reflection of a good understanding of the current situation across all the five dimensions in relation to that vision. The lens of realism must be applied without sentimentality. The realpolitik nature of the World must be studied and opportunities seized so that the path to the vision is traversed. 

I believe that the initial steps taken by Modi government signals an understanding and intent. It is a call for action. There is a Unity in Purpose and Clarity in Thought on what needs to be done. It is in this context one should look at things and decide. Modi has exercised a choice here. He is pursuing a plan of action that will call for engagement with the pre-eminent powers of the world and that includes the USG. I do not think he is under any illusion, nor is he looking at things from a transactional point of view. It is merely an acknowledgement to reality that he needs to engage. 

What is more important is the agenda that is getting unveiled slowly. The ramifications of which will be far reaching. Is he likely to make all the decisions in this journey correctly? Probably not. There will be a few mis steps. What is more important is that there is a plan and there is an approach to realize the plan that is based on unsentimental and objective assessment of the situation. Even more importantly, the plan that is there is clearly to achieve a comprehensive Vision of India. 

The signals are there for those who care to read them well. 

As usual just a ramble, take it for what it is worth.